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March 05 林肯,肯尼迪,OBAMA 1. Today AIG loose 61BN in Q4, S&P broke below 7000 2. Obama made an inspiring speech last Tuesday. I think Obama is a good leader, he did a good thing for the American people and the right things, addressing the problems in: Finance, Energy, Green and Healthcare. But Obama have no way but to increase tax on rich people to implement this. Because the big deficit for the bail-out and stimulus plans and his promise not increase tax for the common American people. So Obama is against the rich people and elite class of the U.S.A.: Doctors, laywers, Bankers, Capitalist and Stars. How hard it will be? I expect they will not explicitly against Obama. But they will sabotage. One typical way, they will use complex tactics to make things complex and comprehensive and run media depict Obama made mistakes and imcompetent on economics. Look at the AIG debacle. Obama will loose in either response way. The stock price drop since Obama took the office. Ultimately people will loose in faith in him if it continues. The only support Obama can get is directly from it's people. The internet change the strategy of the election campain. Otherwise he will not win. Hope he can continuously take advantage of the internet, because only those loyalty and common public support him. It's very difficult to surpus the elite class and make any policy working. February 16 经济大局有个想法:
1 现在实体经济的问题是银行不借钱,银行不借钱的原因是银行自己有deleverage的问题
2 政府代替银行借钱,也替企业和消费者花钱,并且把int降到不能再低
3 银行逼政府逼国会让全民买单银行的损失
4 一旦经济好转,银行开始借钱也是很容易的
以后的发展:
1 政府刺激政策出台,国会逼的救了银行后,银行也开始借钱,一下货币会出来很多。全世界会通胀,而结果是美国和英国的房产价格在通胀下趋于合理,解决了金融问题
结果:
1 不是通货紧缩,还是通胀,并且很快在6个月之内
2 发展中国家成熟转型,世界达到新的平衡,未来3年
3 金融行业继续下一轮赚钱
原因:
1 基本的科技发展与30年代不可能同日而语,生产力大大提高,完全能保障人民在减少工作时间前提下也过好生活
2 经济周期缩短:现在的Lean Production和信息系统可以使生产根据消费敏捷的调整。
3 Conspiracy,我一直是阴谋论的支持者,我相信一些在Wall Street处于权力中心的人有动机,有能力创造和利用这次危机。我也不相信他们有足够的道德标准来限制他们这么做。
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